Zarvan
ELITE MEMBER
- Apr 28, 2011
- 54,493
- 87
- Country
- Location
(CNN) -- One man more interested than most in what President Barack Obama will have to say in his address to the nation Wednesday night is al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
In his hideout somewhere in Pakistan or Afghanistan, he will likely be hoping that the President sets out a plan to exterminate the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a group that has eclipsed al Qaeda and made al-Zawahiri seem virtually irrelevant.
Al-Zawahiri and the core of al Qaeda are locked in battle with ISIS for the leadership of the global jihadist movement -- offering very different visions and strategies. ISIS was expelled from al Qaeda in February after rejecting al-Zawahiri's demand that it restrict its activities to Iraq.
ISIS has captured the imagination of a new generation of jihadists -- from Arab and European states alike -- with its ruthless pursuit of a Caliphate, dramatic territorial gains and relentless propaganda machine.
Its chilling brutality toward non-Muslims and Muslims who don't share its rigid interpretation of Islam echo the behavior of its predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, whose vicious attacks on Shia Muslims and moderate Sunnis drew the ire of the late al Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden.
a strategy document set out ideas for attacking targets such as cruise ships, dams and bridges as well as aircraft. But very little beyond "lone wolf" attacks by distant sympathizers of al Qaeda has happened since.
Over the last three years, the most significant terror attacks against western interests have been against the U.S. Consulate compound in Benghazi, Libya, where there may have been some involvement by members of al Qaeda affiliates; the gas plant in southern Algeria in January 2013, carried out by a maverick group that pledged allegiance to al Qaeda but does not appear to have been acting on its instructions; and the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya -- the work of Al-Shabaab, apparently planned without reference to the al Qaeda leadership, even if it was exactly the sort of operation al-Zawahiri had urged.
Attacks against U.S. military, diplomatic and government targets in Afghanistan have largely been the work of the Taliban and Haqqani Network, though al Qaeda fighters are enmeshed with these groups.
Some al Qaeda affiliates have been forced on the defensive over the last couple of years. The French intervention in Mali pushed back groups linked to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which had taken over half the country. AQAP seized and then lost several towns in southern Yemen in early 2012, and resorted to suicide bombings and fighting Yemeni government forces from remote hideouts.
Al-Shabaab lost its leader Godane in a U.S. missile strike last week and has lost large areas of Somalia it once controlled to ground offensives by Kenyan, Ethiopian and African Union forces. It has also suffered vicious infighting. And in Pakistan, the army has gone on the offensive against the Pakistani Taliban -- an al Qaeda affiliate also riven by division -- in the North Waziristan tribal area.
Al Qaeda strongholds still exist
statements from al Qaeda that hint at the coming of a "counter-Caliphate."
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Thomas Jocelyn pointed out in Foreign Policy that despite the U.S. surge in Afghanistan, "The remote provinces of Kunar and Nuristan are home to significant cadres of al Qaeda fighters, and al Qaeda continues to operate side by side with its allies in other parts of the country."
There is also the prospect -- or as some would say, likelihood -- that ISIS will over-reach much as did its predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq -- alienating the Sunni tribes, taking territory it cannot defend and mobilizing more enemies than it can resist. If the coalition now building against it can split ISIS' Syrian and Iraqi possessions and prize cities like Mosul from its grasp, the momentum crucial to its success and appeal will be lost.
The Obama administration seems poised to borrow a page out of its strategy against al Qaeda to deal with ISIS. Last week, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes noted: "We've been able to significantly degrade al Qaeda core in Afghanistan and Pakistan, decimate its leadership ranks, reducing the threat that they pose."
Now a repetition in Iraq of the U.S. strategy that reduced al-Zawahiri to a spectator may be his best chance of overcoming the challenge posed by ISIS. The risk is that Washington and its allies will neglect imminent challenges in Afghanistan while refocusing on the militant challenge in Iraq. We've seen that movie too.
READ: ISIS, ISIL or the Islamic State?
READ: Is this ISIS' social media guru?
Al Qaeda battles ISIS for global jihadist leadership - CNN.com
In his hideout somewhere in Pakistan or Afghanistan, he will likely be hoping that the President sets out a plan to exterminate the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a group that has eclipsed al Qaeda and made al-Zawahiri seem virtually irrelevant.
Al-Zawahiri and the core of al Qaeda are locked in battle with ISIS for the leadership of the global jihadist movement -- offering very different visions and strategies. ISIS was expelled from al Qaeda in February after rejecting al-Zawahiri's demand that it restrict its activities to Iraq.
ISIS has captured the imagination of a new generation of jihadists -- from Arab and European states alike -- with its ruthless pursuit of a Caliphate, dramatic territorial gains and relentless propaganda machine.
Its chilling brutality toward non-Muslims and Muslims who don't share its rigid interpretation of Islam echo the behavior of its predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, whose vicious attacks on Shia Muslims and moderate Sunnis drew the ire of the late al Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden.
a strategy document set out ideas for attacking targets such as cruise ships, dams and bridges as well as aircraft. But very little beyond "lone wolf" attacks by distant sympathizers of al Qaeda has happened since.
Over the last three years, the most significant terror attacks against western interests have been against the U.S. Consulate compound in Benghazi, Libya, where there may have been some involvement by members of al Qaeda affiliates; the gas plant in southern Algeria in January 2013, carried out by a maverick group that pledged allegiance to al Qaeda but does not appear to have been acting on its instructions; and the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya -- the work of Al-Shabaab, apparently planned without reference to the al Qaeda leadership, even if it was exactly the sort of operation al-Zawahiri had urged.
Attacks against U.S. military, diplomatic and government targets in Afghanistan have largely been the work of the Taliban and Haqqani Network, though al Qaeda fighters are enmeshed with these groups.
Some al Qaeda affiliates have been forced on the defensive over the last couple of years. The French intervention in Mali pushed back groups linked to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which had taken over half the country. AQAP seized and then lost several towns in southern Yemen in early 2012, and resorted to suicide bombings and fighting Yemeni government forces from remote hideouts.
Al-Shabaab lost its leader Godane in a U.S. missile strike last week and has lost large areas of Somalia it once controlled to ground offensives by Kenyan, Ethiopian and African Union forces. It has also suffered vicious infighting. And in Pakistan, the army has gone on the offensive against the Pakistani Taliban -- an al Qaeda affiliate also riven by division -- in the North Waziristan tribal area.
Al Qaeda strongholds still exist
statements from al Qaeda that hint at the coming of a "counter-Caliphate."
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Thomas Jocelyn pointed out in Foreign Policy that despite the U.S. surge in Afghanistan, "The remote provinces of Kunar and Nuristan are home to significant cadres of al Qaeda fighters, and al Qaeda continues to operate side by side with its allies in other parts of the country."
There is also the prospect -- or as some would say, likelihood -- that ISIS will over-reach much as did its predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq -- alienating the Sunni tribes, taking territory it cannot defend and mobilizing more enemies than it can resist. If the coalition now building against it can split ISIS' Syrian and Iraqi possessions and prize cities like Mosul from its grasp, the momentum crucial to its success and appeal will be lost.
The Obama administration seems poised to borrow a page out of its strategy against al Qaeda to deal with ISIS. Last week, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes noted: "We've been able to significantly degrade al Qaeda core in Afghanistan and Pakistan, decimate its leadership ranks, reducing the threat that they pose."
Now a repetition in Iraq of the U.S. strategy that reduced al-Zawahiri to a spectator may be his best chance of overcoming the challenge posed by ISIS. The risk is that Washington and its allies will neglect imminent challenges in Afghanistan while refocusing on the militant challenge in Iraq. We've seen that movie too.
READ: ISIS, ISIL or the Islamic State?
READ: Is this ISIS' social media guru?
Al Qaeda battles ISIS for global jihadist leadership - CNN.com
