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2014 will bring no peace to the World.....


Sep 21, 2011
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Those who have pinned hopes for stability in South Asian region on withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan in 2014 are in for shock and disappointment. The region will plunge into more instability after competing interests of Pakistan, Iran, India and China come into play and each stakeholder tries, through its proxies, to have its pound of flesh. If history is any guide, Afghanistan is destined to live in war and bloodshed or, to the horror of the world, be captured and ruled by the Taliban. The Taliban proudly claim to have resisted, fought and forced the drawdown and, thus, are the bona fide contender for the throne of Kabul. If we build a future scenario on the basis of aftermath of withdrawal of Soviet forces in February, 1989, the picture that would emerge is not in the interest of any of the power brokers. The worst victims of the death and mayhem will be Afghanistan itself followed by Pakistan. Pakistan is primary target of terrorists of all hues but after the drawdown, the world at large will experience a tidal flow of terrorist activities.
The US has considered in detail the possibility of handing over Afghanistan to Afghan National Security Forces. This would also be a recipe for disaster because credible sources have indicated near complete infiltration of the Taliban in Afghan National Army. Recent incidents of Green-on-Blue attacks have confirmed the worst fears of security analysts. Common Afghans are no less hostile to the coalition forces which has amply been demonstrated by successful attacks of the Taliban in the heart of most-guarded district of the Afghan capital. These attacks could not be successful without the aid of, and connivance with, the local Afghans.
The coalition (read: the US) would, thus, be back to square one after withdrawal of its troops and would have wasted trillions of taxpayers’ dollars and precious human lives in Afghan misadventure. This does not include “collateral damage” in thousands killed in Pakistan and Afghanistan and destruction of physical infrastructure.

National Security: South Asia will remain volatile even after 2014….

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