Before we start calling everyone in GOP an idiot for incurring Rs12-billion loss to the economy; has anyone tried to find out the reasons behind what appears to be an absurd decision?
No sane person would deny that LNG is cheaper, cleaner and more efficient fuel for power generation than fuel oil (Furnace oil in Pak lingo). However, Pakistan has a long established petroleum refining industry where products such as diesel, motor gasoline, jet fuel, and LPG are produced which are vital for the Pakistan economy as well as defense.
In my earlier post on LNG under the thread
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/some-questions-for-shahid-khakan-abassi.591464/page-2#post-11032790
I had mentioned that
“In my opinion, Shahid Khaqan's decision to replace furnace oil by LNG was a right one as from all points of view LNG is a cheaper option and far better for the environment but it was also taken without due safeguards for Pakistan’s refinery sector.”
I had also given the link to the news that refineries fear a shut-down.
All refineries in Pakistan (Except Parco) are hydro-skimming units, roughly 40% of the crude feed produces fuel oil. Because the end users are switching over to gas/LNG refineries are reaching ‘tank top’ situation; that means that there is no space available to store the fuel oil resulting from the crude processing. In such cases refinery would have to shut down but this would also mean that no motor gasoline, diesel or jet fuel will be produced causing a serious setback to the country’s economy.
The correct policy would be to make power plants to burn fuel oil (as was happening before the import of LNG) and only after the locally generated fuel oil has been used up, imported LNG should be used. GOP has finally decided on this simple and straightforward strategy, which should have been implemented before the first LNG
shipment was imported.
In my opinion, the claim of Rs 12-billion loss to the economy is also based on farcical presumptions. I was previously accused by Hon Samlee for going bonkers due to old age, I am sure someone will accuse me of something similar this time too.
Regardless of my mental state, the rationale behind the delaying the LNG shipment is to safeguard Pakistan’s refining industry and avoid gasoline, diesel & jet fuel shortage resulting from it. How much would be the loss then?
Problem is that as a nation we are never happy. We blame the Shahid Khaqan Abbasi for signing Qatari contract to alleviate the gas shortage, but when PTI gov’t orders delay in the LNG shipment, we cry blue murder again. In both the cases, decisions were the right ones.
However, these are my countrymen and I am one of them.
For the record, here is an article from an international petroleum publication.
- 30 Nov 2018 | 08:17 UTC
- Karachi
Analysis: Pakistan oil refineries fear shutdown on rising fuel oil stocks
Karachi — Pakistan oil refineries have warned the ministry of energy that rising fuel oil inventories, driven by the government's shift to LNG-based power generation, could result in imminent refining shutdowns and a nation-wide shortage of other oil products, especially gasoline and jet fuel.
Fuel oil supply chain disruptions are certainly not new to Pakistan. An abrupt decrease in fuel oil orders from power plants in late 2017 led to a rapid rise in stocks at import terminals and domestic refineries, delaying deliveries of imported cargoes and disrupting operations of domestic producers.
Consumption is unlikely to recover, as the electricity feedstock landscape continues its switch to gas facilitated by exponential growth in LNG imports, which are expected to increase from 4.9 million mt of LNG in 2017 to nearly 24 million mt/year by 2023, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
So far this year, the situation has forced refiners to lower throughput to an average of 60-70%, and could result in imminent shutdowns within the next 10-15 days, according to separate letters sent by the Oil Companies Advisory Council, Pak Arab Refinery (Parco), Attock Refinery, National Refinery and Pakistan Refinery to the ministry of energy in late November.
Refiners have proposed a minimum mandatory offtake of 10,000 mt/day of fuel oil by the country's oil marketing companies, versus an average demand of 3,285 mt/day over the period November 1-21, 2018.
GLUT WORSENED BY IMPORTS
The supply glut has been worsened by fuel oil imports, despite a new energy committee, headed by the minister for energy, having been constituted a year ago, to approve fuel oil imports and monitor output from domestic refineries.
Pakistan imported nearly 150,000 mt of fuel oil in October and received another cargo of 68,153 mt November 18, an oil analyst said.
"It is beyond comprehension why fuel oil was imported when even local refineries were finding it hard to sell local production", he said.
The decision to constitute the new energy committee was made in December 2017, when the most recent fuel oil supply glut forced the country's state-owned importer Pakistan State Oil to defer multiple cargoes for November-January deliveries, Platts reported at the time.
'SERIOUS PRODUCTS SHORTAGE'
"A refinery shutdown would have serious ramifications", said Parco. It would break the product supply chain, resulting in a serious shortage of motor gasoline, supply cuts of JP-1 and JP-8 to airports and disruptions in local crude oil waste disposal, the refiner's letter said.
Parco, a joint venture between the governments of Pakistan and Abu Dhabi, is operating at 65%, "technically its lowest operating level and is heading for a shutdown if fuel oil offtake by OMCs does not increase immediately," said Managing Director Tariq Rizavi said in a separate letter to director general (oil) of energy ministry.
The refinery produces around 160,000 mt of diesel, 75,000 mt of motor gasoline and about 30,000 mt of jet fuel for Pakistan International Airlines and Pakistan Air force every year. It would be difficult to replace these quantities with imported volumes if unplanned shutdowns were to occur, it said.
-- Haris Zamir,
newsdesk@spglobal.com
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/...eries-fear-shutdown-on-rising-fuel-oil-stocks